The Mediterranean region, where Türkiye is located, is among the most affected regions by climate change. According to a recent study* changes have already begun in parts of our country with arid and cold spells. On a global scale, the continuation of life as we know it depends on limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees.
In our country, where we experience the impacts of climate change every day through floods, droughts, and wildfires, we need an effective climate target that will make us more resilient to the climate crisis and protect rich biodiversity and natural systems.
* “Observed and projected geographical and temporal changes in the Köppen-Geiger climate types in Türkiye”, conducted by Prof. Dr Murat Türkeş and Res. Asst. Nami Yurtseven
Climate Network Recommendations for Türkiye’s Climate Target
The Climate Network sets out the following demands for a climate target that is compatible with the 1.5°C pathway and that advances Türkiye toward its 2053 net-zero objective:
Fossil fuel phase-out:
To effectively address the climate crisis, Türkiye must implement immediate, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. A clear and binding timeline should be announced for the complete phase-out of coal in electricity generation and for the termination of new investments in gas and oil. False or misleading solutions, including nuclear energy, hydrogen production from nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage, should be avoided. All fossil fuel subsidies should be eliminated by 2030. In parallel, the capacity of electricity transmission and distribution networks should be significantly enhanced.
Just transition:
By 2030, a comprehensive Just Transition Mechanism should be established to ensure that vulnerable groups are not left behind. This mechanism should include measures to support workforce transitions in fossil-fuel-dependent sectors and address energy poverty in an integrated manner.
Nature conservation:
By 2030, the proportion of protected areas within Türkiye’s total land area should be increased to 30%, in alignment with the global biodiversity framework targets to which Türkiye is a party to. In addition, at least 30% of degraded ecosystems, including forests, wetlands, and agricultural lands, should be restored.
Food security:
The share of agroecological and regenerative agricultural practices, including organic farming, within existing agricultural lands should be increased to a minimum of 10%. Agricultural water consumption should be reduced by 50% through support for appropriate crop planning and the transition to water-efficient irrigation systems.
Forest fire management:
Traditional fire prevention approaches should be implemented in line with updated climate projections, and the training, institutional capacity, and equipment of forest fire response organisations should be strengthened in accordance with the emerging fire regime.
Health:
Through ecosystem-based solutions, green space per capita should be increased to approximately twice its current level. Planning should be undertaken for populations experiencing health impacts from heatwaves. All air pollutants should be comprehensively measured and monitored, and regulatory exemptions that allow pollution from fossil-fuel-based power plants and industrial facilities under environmental legislation should be abolished.
Türkiye Committed to Increasing, Rather Than Reducing, Its Emissions
In the climate target it submitted in 2022, Türkiye set a target of a 41% reduction from projected increases by 2030. This means that, under the current growth scenario used as the reference, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, while the stated climate target calls for a reduction relative to this growth trajectory. In practice, this “reduction from increase” target implies that emissions will increase by more than 30% by 2030.
Why Is an Effective Climate Target Critical for Türkiye?
Without an effective climate target, it is not possible to build a robust climate policy. A climate target is the highest-level political commitment that guides both global obligations and the pathway to net-zero transformation. In the absence of such a target, policy instruments remain fragmented, temporary, and ineffective.
For countries like Türkiye that are highly exposed to the impacts of the climate crisis, an ambitious target is not merely a global obligation but a matter of national security and resilience. Resilience against disasters such as droughts, wildfires, and floods can only be achieved through strong mitigation policies implemented at the global level. To play a meaningful role in global emissions reduction and to exert pressure on high-emitting countries, Türkiye must submit an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
What Happens If We Fail to Halt Global Temperature Rise?
If global temperature rise can be halted, the extent of arid and hot climate zones can be limited to 63.8% of the country’s land area. If emissions and global temperature rise are not halted, arid and hot climate zones will cover 71.7% of the country by 2040 and 82.4% by 2070. Conversely, cold climate zones will shrink to 23.3% by 2040 and to 14.8% by 2070.
In other words, under a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, more than 80% of Türkiye’s territory will fall within hot and arid climate zones by the end of the century. Moreover, by 2070, desert climate conditions will begin to emerge in the country’s continental interior regions and in Southeastern Anatolia.